The upcoming presidential election in the United States will have truly global consequences. Few countries have more at stake than Ukraine, which is heavily dependent on continued US support to maintain the fight against Russia’s invasion. As the November 5 vote approaches, Ukrainians are anxiously observing the final weeks of the campaign.
During the past two and a half years of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian officials, military personnel, and members of the public have made significant efforts to express their gratitude for American support and acknowledge the critical role it has played in their country’s war effort. But there is now a sense of unease about the future of US aid.
Ukrainian concerns are primarily focused on the potential consequences of a Donald Trump victory in the upcoming election. While Ukrainian officials and commentators generally prefer not to make any public statements about the presidential election to avoid accusations of meddling in US domestic politics, many acknowledge a growing nervousness.
Uncertainty in Kiev about the former president’s position is not a new phenomenon and can be traced back almost a decade to the 2016 US presidential election. “Trump’s view of Ukraine has been persistently negative for at least the last eight years,” commented Volodymyr Dubovyk, director of the Odesa National University Center for International Studies, in September 2024. “Much of this view was shaped by people who were opposed to Ukraine.”
Trump’s support for Ukraine while in the White House, which included the delivery of Javelin anti-tank missiles, did much to rebuild confidence in Kiev. He also chose not to use his influence over Republican members of Congress to block aid to Ukraine earlier this year. Nevertheless, there is currently considerable unease over the former US president’s vague plans for peace with Russia, which many Ukrainians fear will involve unacceptable territorial concessions.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sought to downplay concerns by referring to Trump’s more troubling campaign rhetoric on Ukraine as “electioneering messages.” Despite these efforts, considerable uncertainty remains about what a Trump victory would mean for Ukraine, with some worried that he would likely take a softer approach to Russia.
The sense of anxiety in Ukraine has been heightened by recent revelations in a new book by American journalist Bob Woodward, which claims Trump sent COVID-19 testing equipment to Russia in 2020 for President Vladimir Putin’s personal use. The book also claims Trump and Putin may have spoken up to seven times since Trump left the White House in 2021, according to an unnamed aide.
Trump campaign officials have denied those allegations. The Kremlin has confirmed that Russia received COVID tests from the United States, but has played down the significance of the gesture.
Throughout the current campaign, Trump’s comments on Ukraine have centered on his commitment to end the current war in one day, while also claiming that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine would never have happened had he remained in office. Speaking with Zelenskyy in New York in September, Trump highlighted his “very good relationship” with both Putin and Zelenskyy, while insisting he could broker a settlement between the two leaders “very quickly.”
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Not everyone in Ukraine is convinced that a Trump presidency would be bad news for the country. Some prefer to emphasize Trump’s important contribution in April 2024, when he chose not to oppose the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson’s Ukraine aid bill, which would likely have prevented it from passing Congress. Allies of the former president have also said he is receptive to advice from a number of officials who have warned him about the potentially dangerous consequences of a Russian victory in Ukraine.
Perhaps the most detailed outline of possible future US policy toward Ukraine under a potential second Trump presidency has come from Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance. In a September 2024 interview, Vance indicated that Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine would involve allowing Russia to remain in control of the Ukrainian regions it currently occupies, establishing a demilitarized zone, and requiring Ukraine to commit to neutrality.
If implemented, such a settlement would likely be seen as a significant victory in Moscow. Critics have warned that it would also jeopardize Ukraine’s future security and could set the stage for further Russian aggression. However, it is important to emphasize that Vance’s comments have not been endorsed by Trump and do not represent official policy.
Trump’s often evasive statements on Ukraine may indicate that he is keeping his options open for the future. While much of his rhetoric on Ukraine has set off alarm bells in Kiev, he has also supported US aid to the country and is no doubt aware that many in his own party continue to advocate a strong pro-Ukraine position.
Recent allegations about the former US president’s personal relationship with Putin will do little to ease existing concerns in Ukraine. If Trump wins a second term next month, his approach to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may ultimately depend on the advice he receives from those close to him. Ukrainians will hope that bipartisan political support for their country and continued indications of strong support for Ukraine among the American public will be enough to prevent major changes in US policy.
Kate Spencer is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.
The Eurasia Center The mission is to strengthen transatlantic cooperation to promote stability, democratic values ​​and prosperity in Eurasia, from Eastern Europe and Turkey in the West to the Caucasus, Russia and Central Asia in the East.
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Photo: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, during a meeting with US Vice President Kamala Harris, not pictured, in the Vice President’s Ceremonial Office in Washington, DC, US, Thursday, September 26, 2024. The US announced on Wednesday a new arms package to Ukraine for a worth $375 million, including ammunition for rocket systems and artillery, as well as armored vehicles and anti-tank weapons. (Photographer: Ting Shen/Pool/Sipa USA)