As Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah and Iran has escalated, it has begun to show a degree of vulnerability. A Hezbollah drone on Sunday evaded Israel’s much-vaunted air defenses and hit a military canteen as it was busy with soldiers eating dinner. Four were killed and 58 injured, seven seriously, at a site 40 miles south of the Lebanese border.
The drone that hit the canteen at the Golani base near Binyamina appears to have been part of a synchronized strike that allowed it to evade the country’s well-organized air defenses. Three drones flew from Lebanon over the Mediterranean, and although they were all initially detected and two shot down, the other was able to reach its target.
Why the third drone got away, avoiding fighter jets, helicopters and the Iron Dome defense system, is the subject of an urgent investigation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). Hezbollah has honed its attack strategy, and timing the drone strike with rockets helped complicate the picture for the defenders.
Drones can fly slower than missiles, but the Iranian-designed carbon fiber models used by Hezbollah are hard to see and difficult for radar to pick up, a task made more complicated by being deliberately flown low. Maneuverable, this drone, said to be the Sayyad 107, resisted GPS control jamming, possibly because it used Russian or Chinese alternatives.
It is not the first time in recent days that a drone has come through. A nursing home in Herzliya was hit by a drone on Friday during the Yom Kippur holiday – one of two that crossed the border from Lebanon. The second was successfully shot down by a fighter jet, but the other hit the building a few kilometers north of Tel Aviv.
Israel’s air force said on Monday it intercepted more than 80% of incoming drones – 221 of the 1,200 fired at the country during the war so far have come through. But an increase in the number of attacks and the growing sophistication of what are still relatively cheap-to-produce weapons will increase the risk of Israeli casualties as the fighting continues. However, the number of civilian and military casualties caused by Israeli attacks in Lebanon and Gaza is still far greater.
Over the past 24 hours, 18 people have been reported killed in attacks that hit the northern Lebanese city of Aitou on Monday, while 22 people – including 15 children – were killed on Sunday in an attack on a school in central Gaza. But such is the asymmetry of the conflict that repeated successful attacks on Israel will raise questions about the completeness of the country’s air defenses.
Although Iran’s major ballistic missile attack on Israel at the beginning of the month was of a different magnitude, it also appears to have been more damaging than initially recognized. It was first assessed by the number of casualties it caused – only one person, a Palestinian in the West Bank, was believed to have been killed. But the impact on buildings was greater than first thought.
Israel’s tax authority said on Sunday it had received 2,200 damage claims for civilian buildings after the October 1 attack, and another 300 for vehicles and contents, bringing the total damage estimate to 150 to 200 million shekels (£31m to £41m). In Hod Hasharon, northeast of Tel Aviv, more than 1,000 homes were damaged, some affected by a shock wave from a missile that smashed into an open area nearby.
Against such a background, and with Israel expected to retaliate against Iran soon, it is not surprising that the US announced that it would deploy one of its seven specialized Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) systems in Israel and a crew of nearly 100 American troops. Thaad is designed to defend against ballistic missiles and will field alongside Israel’s Arrow 2 and 3 and David’s Sling long- and medium-range defense systems.
Bringing up Thaad suggests that the US believes that whatever Israel plans to do will invite a new response from Iran and that it could seriously test existing air defenses. As Hezbollah also appears to be creating problems of a different order for Israel’s air defense with its drone strikes, the overall situation risks becoming more dangerous and burdensome as the conflict enters its second year.