Happy Tuesday Dinarians,
Well we have less than 1 day to go to the Iraqi Elections, and I’m getting excited!
I saw this Iraqi Elections 2014 (by Aljazeera) posted on the IQD Team Connection’s website and had to share with you. I hope it helps to clarify for you what in the heck is going on over there with tomorrow’s Election.
NOTE: SCROLL DOWN (Past the Infographic) TO READ MY VOTE RETURN ANALYSIS & ESTIMATES FOR MALIKI.
MY ESTIMATE OF VOTES FOR MALIKI – BASED ON THE ABOVE CHART!
I estimate that Maliki will receive 4,320,000 votes out of the 21.5 Million Registered Iraqi Voters.
However, we know that 21.5 Million Registered Voters is different from the Actual voters who turn out to vote (or live through Maliki’s henchmen’s bombs).
Recently there was a News Article which said in 2010 Election, 50% of registered voters in Iraq actually voted. That article also estimated that in the 2014 Election, as much as 80% (or more) of registered Iraqi Voters were expected to vote.
Acutal Voters based on the 2010 Election of 50% of Registered voters:
50% of 21.5M = 10.75 Million Voters – then Maliki gets roughly 42% of the vote – making him the #1 receiver of votes, but he may still not win if Sadr, Hakim and the Kurds combine their votes, making aprox 58%. This is not as desired, as Maliki will fight to retain his seat as Prime Minister, claiming the vote is too “close”. He may even be able to sway some support his way – like he did in 2010. Luckily, the margin in 2014 is much wider than it was back in 2010, and Public sentiment is not nearly as favorable for Maliki – so, overall it is my opinion that Maliki will still lose, but it may be drug out over many months to see this result.
Acutal Voters based on the 2014 Election estimate of 80% of Registered voters:
80% of 21.5M = 17.2 Million Voters – then Maliki gets roughly 25% of the vote – which may or may not make him the #1 receiver of votes. He will have very little chance to win, especially if Sadr, Hakim and the Kurds combine their votes, making aprox 75%. This is our very BEST option which we need to pray to God for – with an overwhelming win of 75% of the votes, Maliki will have no leverage or support to continue his fight for a 3rd Term.
I’m glad there have not been more bombings today according to the News I’ve read!
I personally believe that the Iraqi Citizens know that Maliki is responsible for Monday’s bombings and I really hope that it has “back fired” (pun intended) on Maliki – since the Iraqis will be even more determined to get him the heck out of Office, then held up for his Crimes!!
I hope this have been of help to you! If so, let me know, use the comment form below, or share this post socially. Hang in there friend, we are almost there!
~ Mr. IQD